A GOP candidate for governor helped nearly flip a Queens Assembly seat. Can Blakeman do the same?

Can Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman help out Queens Republican Assembly candidate Thomas Sullivan in his own push for Albany? Photo via Thomas Sullivan/X

By Ryan Schwach

Four years ago, Thomas Sullivan came tantalizingly close to ousting a Queens political dynasty.

Running for Assembly District 23, which covers the Rockaway peninsula and parts of South Queens, Sullivan, a Republican, lost by a little over a dozen votes to Stacey Pheffer Amato, the Democratic incumbent whose mother once held the seat.

Though not the sole factor in his near-victory, Sullivan’s performance was propped up by Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin, who drew out a large number of voters in the conservative section of Queens.

This year, Sullivan is again on the ballot. And while Zeldin is not, Sullivan won’t be without a Republican name on the top of the ticket.

Bruce Blakeman, who currently serves as Nassau County’s executive, is running to oust Governor Kathy Hochul, who is running for her second full term in office.

Sullivan’s performance in the upcoming race for the Assembly against Pesach Osina, who won the Democratic primary for the seat after Pheffer Amato announced her retirement earlier this year, will likely be tied to Blakeman’s performance.

But whether Blakeman’s presence in the election will bring Sullivan as close to becoming the sole Queens Republican in the state legislature as Zeldin did remains to be seen.

While Sullivan has welcomed Blakeman’s support – the GOP gubernatorial candidate endorsed him and has campaigned with him in Queens a handful of times – he said he thinks Blakeman will be a nonfactor in securing the votes he believes he truly needs to win the Assembly race.

“A lot of people are going to walk in, vote for the governor, and walk out,” Sullivan told the Eagle in an interview last week. “I can't afford that.”

Sullivan’s campaign is targeting two groups of voters in Far Rockaway – Black Democrats upset with the state of the Democratic Party and conservative-leaning Orthodox Jewish voters.

While Sullivan feels Blakeman will help turn out Republican voters in other parts of the district, he doesn’t think he’ll play much of a role in offsetting the thousands of votes his opponent is expected to receive from the Orthodox Jewish community, which Osina is a member of.

“[Blakeman] is not going to help me out there,” Sullivan said.

Blakeman’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

‘Painfully purple’

The 23rd Assembly District, which encompasses a chopped-up and jagged section of the Rockaway peninsula, as well as Broad Channel, Howard Beach and a section of Ozone Park, is one of a shrinking number of Queens seats that could still firmly be seen as a toss-up in the post-Zohran Mamdani political age.

The district’s retiring incumbent, Democratic Assemblymember Stacey Pheffer Amato, described it as “purple” in a conversation with the Eagle earlier this year.

“This district is working class, but we have very good social values,” she said. “At the same time, we're getting very conservative.”

“I do still see that we are a majority in the Democratic register, but I think we're painfully purple,” she added.

The district went firmly to Andrew Cuomo in both the mayoral primary and general elections last year, and voted for Donald Trump in 2024 after voting for Joe Biden four years prior.

A different landscape

Sullivan has attempted to flip the district twice before.

In 2022, the retired Army colonel from Breezy Point came about as close to winning as a losing candidate could.

Energized by a three-to-one Republican turnout in the district’s conservative sections brought on by a close gubernatorial race between Zeldin and Hochul, Sullivan was ahead by more than 200 votes on election night.

Following a recount and a slew of legal challenges from Pheffer Amato, the incumbent ultimately secured reelection by a mere 15 votes. Election results weren’t finalized in the race until early January.

But the political landscape in the 23rd District is vastly different in 2026 than it was in 2022.

Four years ago, Hochul was a far weaker candidate, running for her first full term as governor after assuming the office when Cuomo resigned amid sexual abuse allegations.

Nationally, Democrats were also weaker, as Biden’s first two years in office did little to inspire voters.

This year, Hochul appears to be in a stronger position. And while voters will likely again head to the polls to react to an unpopular president, they’ll be trading in Biden for Trump, whose administration is plagued by the war in Iran and rising inflation.

Though Blakeman is close to Trump and appeared with the president at a rally in Long Island last month, he’s largely refrained from touting Trump’s endorsement or using his name in campaign ads in recent weeks.

A recent poll from Sienna University found that 60 percent of New York’s voters viewed Trump unfavorably. The same poll showed Hochul leading Blakeman in the race 49 percent to 39 percent.

‘Jewish voters will be critical’

Also different this year is Sullivan’s opponent.

No longer running against an incumbent, Sullivan is running in an open race, which political observers generally believe is easier to flip.

But still, Osina is a political veteran.

Republican Thomas Sullivan is running against Democrat Pesach Osina (pictured here) in the 23rd Assembly District. Photo via Pesach Osina/X

He’s backed by the Queens County Democratic Party and has the support of Far Rockaway’s Orthodox Jewish population, which has been the deciding factor in the district for several cycles.

“The fact that this is kind of an open seat, it makes it a little bit more difficult to predict,” said Queens political analyst Brian Browne. “But [Osina] seems to have the organizational support. He has the Orthodox Jewish vote. They're pretty good in terms of mobilizing and voting. So, I think he's in a position of strength.”

During the tight 2022 campaign, the three election districts with the highest concentration of Jewish voters went in the high-80 percent range for Zeldin, but ultimately went with Democrat Pheffer Amato just as overwhelmingly.

The Far Rockaway Jewish population also decided the primary election Osina won in June.

Despite losing most election districts in the western and northern portions of the district, Osina defeated attorney Mike Scala with a strong showing from the Jewish community, winning those districts with as high as 95 percent of the vote.

“Clearly, Far Rockaway made the difference in the primary for Pesach Osina,” Browne said. “I'd be curious to see where Jewish voters go. Do they stick with the Democratic Party, which is evolving on some issues important to Jewish voters? Or do they stay home?”

“I think Jewish voters, particularly in that district, will be critical,” he added.

If the governor’s race plays any factor at all in the race, it may be because the district’s Jewish voters are upset at Hochul for her close relationship to Mamdani, who remains wholly unpopular in the district.

“Significant numbers in this city, and particularly in that district among older voters, are going to turn out to vote against Democrats because they vote against Mamdani,” said Democratic political strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “Pesach Osina will win because the Jews will turn out for him. But there'll be some Jews that are not voting for Democrats anymore. That's the problem that he faces long term, and every Jewish Democrat faces long term.”

Early voting in the race begins on Oct. 24, ahead of Election Day on Nov. 4.