City reduces 2026 detainee population estimate ahead of Council’s jail vote

Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice Director Liz Glazer said the revised population estimate is based on the impact of state justice reform measures and the reduction of roughly 250 beds. Eagle file photo by David Brand.

By Jonathan Sperling

As the City Council prepares to vote on the unprecedented land use measure to construct four new jails by 2026, New York City officials revised the estimated jail population Monday. The city now says the number of detained individuals will decrease to 3,300 by 2026, down from an earlier estimate of 4,000. 

An average of about 7,000 people are currently detained in New York City jails. 

The new estimate, announced Monday, comes just days before the City Council votes on the plan to build a jail in every borough but Staten Island. Each of the four jails will now house  an average daily population of fewer than 1,000 people — less than half the population of the largest facility now operating on Rikers Island.

“The new city jail population estimate of 3,300 by 2026 reflects a new model of safety being built in New York City in which police, prosecutors and courts have lightened the touch of the criminal justice system while crime has continued to drop," said Mayor's Office of Criminal Justice Director Liz Glazer in a statement.

Glazer attributed the lower estimate to the city’s diversion and alternatives to incarceration programs, such as the Supervised Release program and Jails to Job program.

The new estimate also reflects the expected impacts bail reform and other state criminal justice reform measures on the number of pretrial detainees in the city’s jails, officials say.

On Oct. 10, the City Council voted in favor of a map change that would forever ban jails on Rikers — a key provision that was never actually incorporated into the land use application. In an Eagle op-ed, Councilmember Donovan Richards said the map change demonstrates a commitment to decarceration and safer, smaller jails.

“We have a responsibility to the thousands of residents whose lives have been destroyed by these awful cages to fully understand the proposal before offering our opinion and support,” Richards said. 

“A vote in favor of the ULURP proposal will open a path for four new detention facilities. But to vote the proposal down is a vote to keep Rikers open indefinitely,” Richards continued. “That is the choice we are facing. This we cannot do.”