Turnout low ahead of special election to fill Mamdani’s old seat

Turnout is expected to be low in Tuesday’s special election to fill Mamdani’s Assembly seat with cold weather and snow making it more difficult to get to the polls. Eagle file photo by Ryan Schwach

By Ryan Schwach

Turnout in the special election to fill the Assembly seat vacated by Mayor Zohran Mamdani was already expected to be low – and that was before the city was smacked with a snow-filled cold snap that only made it less likely people would trudge their way to the polls.

Through early voting, 2,805 locals had voted early in the race, about 400 votes cast each day on average. That’s just a small fraction of the nearly 122,000 people of voting age who live in the 36th Assembly District, which includes most of Astoria, and parts of Long Island City and Elmhurst, and is one of the most vote-rich districts in the city.

Two days of early voting were cancelled due to the storm, giving residents even fewer opportunities to vote before election day on Tuesday. While Governor Kathy Hochul added voting hours to make up for the cancellations, the snow and freezing temperatures certainly didn’t help to drive turnout in the local special election that was already unlikely to churn out the masses.

Despite the weather, the three candidates, Diana Moreno, Rana Abdelhamid and Mary Jobaida made their final pitches to voters about why they should be the woman to fill Mamdani’s shoes – but they’ve had to do most of their home-stretch campaigning in snow boots.

The three progressive women, all with immigrant backgrounds and a history of organizing, are vying to succeed the man who has become one of the country’s most recognizable political figures in the past year.

Moreno, Mamdani’s chosen successor, is the far and away favorite. In a rare consolidation of support, she was endorsed by the Queens Democratic Party, the Working Families Party and the increasingly-powerful Democratic Socialists of America.

Abdelhamid cut her teeth in the district organizing along Steinway Street and teaching local Muslim women how to defend themselves. She has the support of Congressmember Nydia Velázquez, Councilmember Julie Won and several groups, including the Muslim Democratic Club of New York.

Jobaida, also an organizer by trade, has support in the local Bangladeshi community and was endorsed by State Senator John Liu.

All three are members of the DSA.

While the race was initially considered competitive, Moreno’s endorsements have made the outcome appear predetermined, political observers said.

“You have the Democratic nominee in an overwhelming Democratic district, you have the two institutions that pose the greatest threat to the Democratic nominee both supporting the Democratic nominee,” Democratic political strategist Evan Stavisky said. “It's about simple arithmetic, and the math just becomes hard for somebody to win, not on the Democratic line or the WFP line, and without the support of the DSA.”

Still, turnout could make the race less predictable in the district known for voting in large numbers.

Around 41,000 voters in the district turned out to vote during the 2025 general election, in which the progressive stronghold known as “The People’s Republic of Astoria” overwhelmingly voted for Mamdani for mayor. Only one other district in Queens saw more voters head to the polls.

But turnout in special elections is typically low, regardless of the district or weather.

Queens’ last state special election came in September 2023, when Assemblymember Sam Berger was elected following Daniel Rosenthal’s resignation.

Around 4,620 people voted in that election.

Stavisky said that the alleged lack of competition in Assembly District 36 may drive down turnout further.

“It’s a February special that's fundamentally noncompetitive with early voting interrupted by the biggest snowstorm to hit New York in years, turnout should be pretty light,” Stavisky said.

But all three candidates are hoping to keep the polls hot, regardless of the cold outside.

“I feel like there's a lot of people who are animated and engaged in this race,” Abdelhamid told the Eagle this week. “Every debate we've had has been a packed room, so I have a sense that there's also just a very excited base and electorate.”

Although Abdelhamid admits that the cold has made it difficult.

Jobaida agreed.

“I hope the cold doesn’t freeze our democracy,” she said. “We are encouraging people to vote early to avoid long lines in the cold on election day, but the weather is clearly affecting the early voting turnout.”

Moreno, who holds the momentum, also admitted the weather has been a factor, but is still optimistic turnout will turn around.

“The winter storm is definitely not helping,” she said. “However we do see a high level of engagement, both from our volunteers and at the door. I've actually felt pretty heartened to see that folks are still coming out.”

“We really think that most voters haven't voted yet,” she added. “It's our job to get them out.”

When polls open on election day, forecasts indicate the temperature outside of Astoria poll sites should be around 27 degrees.