After 25 years in office, does Stavisky now face her biggest threat?

Democratic incumbent Toby Ann Stavisky will face off against Republican challenger Yiatin Chu on Tuesday. Photos via Office of New York State Senate/Chu Campaign

By Ryan Schwach

Since 1983, a certain portion of Eastern Queens has been represented by someone named “Stavisky.” This year, an opponent may be closer to changing that than ever before. 

This year, State Senator Toby Ann Stavisky, who took office in 1999 following the death of her husband, the former holder of the office, is being challenged by Republican education activist Yiatin Chu, who may pose a legitimate electoral threat to the longtime elected in the 11th District. 

Chu, who made a name for herself pushing merit-based education and opposing affirmative action in the city’s public schools, has raised and spent nearly three-times more than Stavisky’s previous Republican opponent in 2022. On Friday, Chu was endorsed by the New York Post. 

Chu may also be able to take advantage of changing political demographics, mainly among Queens’ Asian community, which, in some areas, has steadily moved more to the right in the past several years. 

While experts say Chuu may pose a legitimate threat, Stavisky has on her side a dedicated voter base, and a major incumbency advantage with more than two decades of experience representing Eastern Queens in Albany. 

Spending big 

Without the benefit of polls for down-ballot races, finances are a main indicator of a candidate’s strength. Stavisky is winning in that department. 

The veteran elected official has received over $50,000 in contributions, and has spent around $124,000. 

That includes $4,000 from the powerful union SEIU Local 32BJ, and funding from other unions and political PACs. 

Chu on the other hand has not skimped. 

She has spent a little over $100,000 this campaign season, and brought in contributions at a rate much higher than previous Stavisky opponents. 

Stavisky also has the power of incumbency on her side. She has been in office since 1999, succeeding her late husband, and she has run 12 general election campaigns in her tenure. Her lowest vote share was 57 percent, which came in 2022, her most recent election. 

“Every campaign is different,” Stavisky said in a phone interview with the Eagle. “It's the tools, the issues may be different, but the tools you use to solve them are the same, and that's the experience, the contacts, the work, the ability to work with others.”

Hank Sheinkopf, a Queens political strategist, said it takes a lot for an incumbent to lose in a local race.

“It takes a cataclysmic event, or something that's not of the norm, or just the sense that time for change,” he told the Eagle. 

However, the veteran political operative doesn’t think the normal rules may apply in this race.  

“When you have long term incumbents, they've been around too long,” he said. 

Also adding to the oddity of the race, Sheinkopf cited the changing demographics in the strangely drawn, reverse-C shape District 11 that includes neighborhoods from Astoria to Glen Oaks. The district also includes neighborhoods like Whitestone, Bay Terrace and Douglaston, where voters lean to the right. 

“You've had people voting for Republicans on a more consistent basis in the northeast,” Sheinkopf said. 

While that is true, the demographics of the district as a whole lean in Stavisky’s favor. 

Based on New York Times data, President Joe Biden took the district with about 66 percent of the vote in 2020. 

In order to topple Stavisky, Chu will likely have to take advantage of the conservative voters in the Asian American communities in the district, which makes up about 36 percent of the population. 

While Sheinkopf argued that incumbency marks the strongest advantage in any race, he thinks that District 11 could go either way. 

“Is it possible? The answer is, yes,”  Sheinkof said when asked if he believed Chu could win. “Would it be absolutely surprising? The answer is no.”

She said her platform is a “blend of what people in the district care about.” 

“I'm on the Republican line, and there are aspects of my platform that are traditionally more Democrat, and they're aspects of my platform that are the standard Republican messaging,” she said. 

Chu has said she would attempt to repeal the state’s bail reforms, enact tougher sentencing guidelines for judges and appoint “law and order” jurists to the state’s courts. 

“We need to fix bail reform,” she said. “If you're a danger to law-abiding citizens on the streets, you shouldn't be back on the streets if you have a record of repeat offense.”

After being accused by Chu throughout the campaign of being soft on crime, Stavisky pointed to her endorsement by the Police Benevolent Association, the powerful police union.  

Chu also has attempted to differentiate herself from Stavisky on the issue of immigration. The Republican has knocked Stavisky for the once-controversial Creedmoor migrant shelter, which both candidates have expressed their opposition to. 

Stavisky said she doesn’t like immigration being “used as a political football.”

“We're working on it,” she said. “When Donald Trump was asked about – and obviously this is a federal issue – why he told the House Republicans not to vote for the bipartisan compromise. What was his answer? They're eating their pets in Springfield, Ohio. That's the kind of situation we don't need.” 

Stavisky has tried to draw one major difference between her and her opponent on the national issue of abortion. 

“Many, many people, not just women, but men as well, are concerned that a woman's right to determine her own reproductive health is in jeopardy, and they should be concerned,” she said

Stavisky has said, both publicly and through campaign literature, that Chu is not pro-choice, a statement Chu disputes. 

“I've been pro-choice, and she's sending out mailers that lie about that,” Chu said. 

Stavisky’s campaign cites a tweet from Chu in April 2023, in which Chu applauded a quote from conservative Supreme Court justice Samuel Alito following a decision from the court to temporarily ensure national access to abortion pills. Alito was one of two justices to dissent from the opinion.  

Chu claims that her celebration of Alito’s dissent was taken out of context. 

“I want all women to have access to all the care across the board,” she told the Eagle.